Hmm. I would love to fiddle with the report settings here. I suspect that you need to look at a few things:
- From Stage to Stage
- InFlow/Outflow #
- # inventory in that month
- Adjust Date settings to look at Leads that changed to MQL in that Month. Maybe you did already, but not super clear in your note.
Post a screenshot?
I don't recall Direct or Indirect Transitions from RCE. Is that new?
The 'Is Direct Transition' filter is usually used to determine if a Fast Track should be put into the model. I would advise against using this filter because this would mean you're only evaluating those leads that traveled directly from a specific stage and could eliminate multi-stage leads.
Have you looked at the pre-built Lead Balance Report? Most times the numbers are inflated in RCE because it captures deleted (or merged) records. Usually the root cause for high model numbers is due to leaving the Auto-Assignment Rules enabled which combined with liberal transition rules leads to a leaky model.
If the Lead Balance Report provides you similar information then I suggest running a lead analysis report on the lifecycle status field and dragging over other fields you use internally to ensure they are legit leads.