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That's correct, you will need a new Marketo instance. The support team can copy over your programs and assets and most of your system configuration from the old instance to the new instance. You will need to move the data yourself and you will lose any activity history and reporting.
Yoni Cohen If you are bringing over your Salesforce campaigns and membership data to the new SFDC org, and these campaigns are synched to existing Marketo programs, I believe you can re-synch them to copied Marketo programs and migrate your program membership and statuses that way.
It won't recreate the detailed activity history but your program membership data would be preserved.