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You can just do
Email Bounces IS ANY, at least 2 times
Marketo understands that it should trigger at the second time or more times in the future. If a lead had already hit it twice, but your trigger wasn't active until after the second time, then on the third time, it will trigger.
I sometimes use this as a Batch instead that runs daily. Up to you though.
So just to check I've understood...
If I set up the smart campaign with a single trigger for Email Bounces, with conditions of Is Any and Min Num of Times 2, the following will apply?
Lead has not bounced before and bounces for the first time --> not triggered
Lead has bounced once before and bounces for a second time --> triggered
Lead has bounced twice or more and bounces for a third or subsequent time --> triggered
In which case, cool - a simple trigger, no filters needed. (Take your point that it could be a batch campaign instead, and will take a judgement on that as a next step.)
Thanks very much!