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All information will be kept intact when merging, include campaign history. To read more about what happens when leads are merged, or contacts are merged, or lead to contact are merged, check out this help article.
In Scenario 1, if the two Contacts don't share an Opportunity, there will be 3 Opportunities after merge.
In Scenario 2, when you merge in Marketo you'll be able to select which fields you'd like to keep. Make sure you select the Master Record first, however. The above help article will go into that in more detail.
All campaign history will be merged along with activities.
As for Opps, SFDC should be smart enough to associate the Opps with the final record, however, you might check that with a test record as I have heard of Opps being orphaned (not necessarily for this reason).
Marketo does opportunity association via an external object, called OpportunityPersonRole(equivalent to OpportunityContactRole in SFDC), this object has two essential fields, OpportunityId and PersonId. During a Merge, all OpportunityPersonRoles with a PersonId pointing to the losing record, will have this changed to the ID of the winning record, and the association will be preserved. The opportunities themselves remain completely unchanged, so if the two records are associated to a single opportunity, this will never result in new/duplicate opportunities being created.